By Thom Palmer
October 11, 2016
Last spring, I stated that I don't believe Trump can round up more than about 35% of the vote. My reasoning was that, even though he won the GOP nomination handily, there were at least 50% of historically Republican voters that actually have moral substance within them, and that they would NEVER be able to allow themselves to vote for someone so immoral and deplorable. I've got to hand it to myself. I wasn't far off the mark, and there were many non-believers challenging me on my logic back in April. While the election isn't over til it's over, I'm looking pretty good here. Here's where I think we are now.
Trump won 13 million votes, out of 55 million Republican and Republican-leaning voters. This is just 24% of Republicans. During the primaries, he shredded and destroyed his competition in very offensive and disgusting fashion. Going after their wives, lying daily and counter-attacking in the same fashion that he attempted to do at the October 9th debate against Clinton, etc. He really generated a strong core base, but left the rest of the GOP and their voters hating him with a passion. That has not changed, however, many Republicans will put on the blinders and vote Republican anyway, because they have either been programmed to be very afraid of the world, are racist and sexist by nature, or are single issue voters. For example, my own sister will vote for Trump. She is heavily pro-life and it just doesn't matter who the nominee is, she'll vote pro-life. What amazes me about this is that she is not straight, and lives life in a manner that 99% agrees with liberal philosophy and platform. She is willing to sacrifice the planet to oil and war profiteers in order to have the slightest chance of overturning Roe v Wade. We're going to get to the abortion issue later ( my next article ), but removing abortion from the equation, I estimate that over 50% of Republicans would vote Democrat. There is a way to preserve a woman's right to choose and at the same time remove abortion as an obstacle to the progressive movement.
So, currently, even though 76% of Republicans hate Trump and everything he stands for, based on current poll numbers, 63% of them will vote for Trump, while nearly 100% of them will otherwise vote for Republicans down-ticket. 63% equals nearly 35,000,000 votes ( out of 135,000,000 registered voters ). This leaves about 37% of Republicans most likely voting 3rd party or leaving the Presidential option blank. They're not likely to vote for Hillary (yet) because of the right-wing extremist's lies, fake scandals and fear mongering tactics.
DEPLORABLE REPUBLICANS
Hillary Clinton RIGHTLY called Republican voters deplorable, but she over-estimated the number of deplorables. By my calculation, the original 24% of Republican voters are TRULY deplorable. These voters are in agreement with the GOP nominee that the world is scary, and like NAZI Germany, we need to issue "papers" to all Muslims, throw out immigrants, make Christianity the only acceptable religion in the United States, walk away from the global economy, reduce women's rights, increase voter suppression, design a "police state" that arbitrarily harasses black males because of their color, allow the very wealthy to pay no taxes, eliminate health care for 10 million Americans, and a whole list of other deplorable policies.
So, what about the 39% of Republican voters ( difference between ALL 63% Trump voters and the 24% deplorables ) that are not necessarily deplorable, but will ignore their sense of decency and common sense, and vote for Trump ? Should they be classified as DEPLORABLE because their candidate and die-hard fans are deplorable? I don't think so, but the sure do need to be educated and perhaps de-programmed of the "terror and fear" paranoia that the Republican Party and Fox News has infected them with over the last two decades.
FINAL BREAKDOWN OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS BY DEPLORABLE STATUS
24% DEPLORABLES ( Hate everybody and everything. Will vote for Trump but might not support other Republicans )
39% DEPLORABLE SYMPATHIZERS ( Will vote for Trump even though they hate him, because they're afraid of Hillary. Will vote for down-ticket Repubs. )
37% NON-DEPLORABLES ( Will NOT vote for Trump. May not vote at all. Probably will punish down-ticket Republicans if they understand they're same as Trump. )
So, as you can see, Hillary Clinton was way off on her numbers. She stated that HALF of Trump supporters are DEPLORABLE, when just 24% ( 13,000,000 ) are truly deplorable. 39% are just okay with selling America's soul by allowing this deplorable man to destroy the fabric of our nation over other political interests, but they aren't "deplorable" per se. They are BRAINWASHED, but not deplorable. It is true, however, if you lump the DEPLORABLE SYMPATHIZERS into the same category as the DEPLORABLES, then Hillary would have under-estimated, since over half, or an actual 100% of Trump voters could be classified as DEPLORABLE. Okay...fine....Hillary made an understatement....whatever! Go ahead and challenge my math. See what you come up with.
BOTTOM LINE
Conservative voters need to understand that they more than likely agree with 90% of the Democratic platform, but fear mongering and misinformation, along with your "single issue" leave you shooting yourself in the foot every two years, when you put faith in the perpetrators who keep bullshitting you every election, only to return to their baby games right after the election. The Republican party has failed you, lied to you and caused you a lot of stress for the last two decades. I know you want a strong conservative party, but you don't have one right now. The only way to change them is to put them in the penalty box for a cycle or two, get rid of the perpetrators and give them the chance to come back as public servants. Multiple parties are important, but need to work together to solve problems and steer the nation as it was designed to be steered by the Founding Fathers. The GOP has no desire to work for anyone but oil and weapons profiteers, and sell you out on nearly a daily
basis. They no longer bear any resemblance to the Republican party that you remember and long for. It's not really most Republican voters that are deplorable. It's Republican politicians, but unfortunately their usual voters are afraid to get away from their vapor trail, compliments of Fox News.
VOTE TRUE.....VOTE BLUE
OTHER HANDY RESOURCES
Brilliant!
ReplyDeleteno longer in fear of being labels anti American.. screw the right wing christian conservatives.. they have created so many of their own nightmares, they believe their own bullshit!
ReplyDelete