FOCUS on SENATE, HOUSE, STATE and LOCAL RACES, and MID-TERMS

FOCUS on SENATE, HOUSE, STATE and LOCAL RACES, and MID-TERMS
By Thom Palmer
July 11, 2016

This weekend, House Leader Paul Ryan (R-Iowa-District1) stated that if Americans want common-sense gun control and background checks to ever come to a House vote, they're going to have to vote in Democrats to lead the House. We couldn't agree more. However, he knows the history of Democratic voters turning out to vote, especially at mid-term elections, and is banking on apathy to hold the House for the NRA (Their boss). I think we're mad enough to now to wake up and vote in huge numbers, not just here in the General Election, but two years from now, where we have the opportunity to gain a supermajority in both the House and Senate. At that point, all economic, humanitarian, foreign policy, voter suppression, women's pay abuse, and environmental problems will quickly diminish. So, let's give Ryan his due by supporting his opponent, Tom Breu, who is mounting a strong challenge, and VOTE BLUE up and down ticket. If you have a couple extra bucks, donate to Breu to help make the statement. "If you refuse to represent the people, we refuse to employ you". www.TomB4House.com

Congressional approval rating in 2012 was about 15%, and by 2013, approval rating was as low as 10% according to Gallup.  In 2014, 435 House members and 33 out of 100 Senators were up for election. With an approval rating of 10%, 90% of the House races and 91% of Senate races were won by incumbents. I give Democratic voters a 17% approval rating in 2014, because only about 17% of Democratic registered voters showed up at the polls. The result, in spite of a 10% congressional approval rating, was that the Republican majority in the House and Senate, the "do nothing congress" gained seats. In the House of Representatives, Republicans are getting very close to a super-majority, or 2/3 control, which would allow them to over-ride Presidential vetoes, and pass anti environmental legislation, etc. Think  of the veto as our only firewall against environmental disaster. In addition, voter suppression will increase, gerrymandering continues, and the progressive agenda is quashed in blue states with red leadership. 

House of Representatives Election Results

After 2008 GENERAL election : Democrats 257, Republicans 178. Net gain for Democrats +21

After 2010 Mid-Term election : Republicans 242, Democrats 193. Net gain for Republicans +63

After 2012 GENERAL election : Republicans 234, Democrats 201. Net gain for Democrats +8

After 2014 Mid-Term election : Republicans 247, Democrats 188. Net gain for Republicans +13

Senate Election Results

After 2008 GENERAL election : Democrats 57, Republicans 41. Net gain for Democrats +8

After 2010 Mid-Term election : Democrats 51, Republicans 47. Net gain for Republicans +6

After 2012 GENERAL election : Democrats 53, Republicans 45. Net gain for Democrats +2

After 2014 Mid-Term election : Republicans 54, Democrats 44. Net gain for Republicans +9

I assume everyone sees a pattern here? Democrats need to begin promoting the 2018 mid-term elections beginning now and continuing through November, while the electorate is engaged, and keep the peddle to the metal throughout the next two and a half years. Progressives complain about the republican extremism and obstructionism, and then fail to make the change. 

Remember, 1/3 of the Senate go up for re-election every two years. 100% of the House of Representatives go up for election every two years. If Democrats concede elections every mid-term, you end up automatically increasing Republican numbers with a 66% advantage.   Having the moral high ground means nothing if you freely give up the elections to Republicans. It's like scratching and saving money for years, and then freely giving access to your savings account to a known thief, and then complaining that the thief stole your money. 

This should be easy. If Democrats show up at even 30% from the recent 17% to vote in mid-terms, Democrats will have a super-majority in both the House and Senate in a mere 2 years, possibly 4 years. Diagnosing the problem doesn't solve the problem, so how do we accomplish the task of improving Democratic Voter Turnout? Here are a couple of ideas, but I would love to hear your thoughts as well.

1. At the Democratic Convention, a strong case should be made for voters to show up in 2018 as well as local special elections that fall in odd years. The importance of State and Local elections cannot be ignored. A web site and hot line needs to be set up and promoted so that Democrats know when to vote, and where their polling places are, along with Voter Registration help. All Democratic candidates, whether they win or lose in 2016, need to promote the mid-terms. Whether they're giving a victory speech or a concession speech, this should be done. We need to be proactive and look ahead.

2. The DNC needs to obtain the list of supporters from ALL Democratic candidates on down-ticket ballots, whether or not they win their election. These voters should be asked to calendar the mid-term election, and without asking for donations, they should be courted for the next two years through monthly newsletters to keep them engaged.

3. Massive advertising needs to be done at our colleges and universities beginning 6 months prior to the mid-term election. These should also include a list of polling places, early voting instruction, and a list of Democratic candidates that they should be supporting in both congressional and state elections.

4. We all need to chip in, remind and encourage our fellow Democrats to show up. Tell them why their vote counts. Show them the statistics.

Please let me know what other ideas and thoughts you have on this. We'll try to promote these ideas among candidates, party leaders nationwide, and progressive media. I know that we're focused on the November election, but I believe that ignoring 2018 is short-sighted, and inhibits progress through frustrating losses at mid-terms. Republicans, after every mid-term say "The people have spoken". Well, I suppose they're right in that failing to show exhibits support for your nemesis. We can't afford excuses.

The Head of the Underworld

Paul Ryan (R) WI-01

Support Tom Breu (D) WI-01